Has Calais Campbell Fallen Too Far?

Mar/04/08 06:14 PM Filed in: Calais Campbell
In my Seahawks Mock Draft, I have Seattle taking Best Available Talent with their first pick. I'm starting to wonder if that's not a phenomenal place to grab a longterm replacement for Patrick Kerney. Depending on the progress of Baraka Atkins, Seattle is either thin or very thin at defensive end. On a team that schemes around pass rush, that would be a disastrous deficiency. Still, you don't want to reach. You want to take a top value, perhaps one that can learn on the sidelines, or work in a rotation while Kerney remains effective.

That got me thinking about Calais Campbell. Campbell's stock dropped after a disappointing junior season, and has now dropped further after a disappointing Combine. One need only watch the guy to see the talent is there. He's a true 6'8", and wears his 290 like an Italian suite. He's lithe and agile and quick in open space. Had he stayed in school and posted a 10+ sack season, he'd be a confirmed top ten pick. But thanks to a sucky junior season coinciding with an even crappier campaign for his school, Miami, Campbell is in danger of falling out of the first round. You know who else had a sucky junior year, Chris Long. Long recorded only 4.5 sacks in 2006. In fact, since we're above using stats out of context to evaluate a player, right?, let's take a look at the three preeminent ends on the board in a slightly more refined way. Campbell and Vernon Gholston are both two year starters. Long started his sophomore season, but we'll cut him a break (2 sacks) and include only his past two (best) seasons. So instead of unduly focusing on their most recent season, let's look at their past two seasons and adjust for opponent pass attempts faced. That way, instead of getting a static number, we're left with a ratio: Sacks per pass attempt. (Just for the sake of clarity, I then projected their sack totals over 500 pass attempts.) Click here to continue reading...