Impact Analysis: Kellen Winslow, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

After requesting a trade last year from the Cleveland Browns, tight end Kellen Winslow has finally had his wish granted. The Browns dealt the enigmatic tight end to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a second-round pick in 2009 and a fifth-round choice in 2010. 

Winslow, who has a storied history of injuries and missed time, finds himself entering a rebuilding team that may be no closer to a Super Bowl berth than the Browns are. That may be the truth, but fantasy owners don't really care now do they? What we care about is how many passes Winslow will catch, how many touchdowns he'll score and what his fantasy value is.

Those questions are going to be tough to answer, but we'll try our best. For the Buccaneers, a plethora of familiar faces are no more, starting with the general manager and working down to veteran players. New faces have entered, but a few recognizable names still call Tampa home.

The supporting cast
The man expected to be tossing the rock to Winslow is quarterback Luke McCown; the Buccaneers re-signed him to a two-year contract. In his five-year career, McCown has started a mere seven games and has seen action in 12. The 6-foot-3, 212-pounder played collegiate football at Louisiana Tech. In his 12 appearances, he has compiled 1,617 passing yards, has thrown nine touchdowns and 10 interceptions. McCown has shown to possess modest accuracy as evidenced by his 59.7 percent completion rate. His most extensive experience came in 2007 for the Bucs, completing a very respectable 67.6 percent of his throws. He averaged 201.8 yards per game and hurled more touchdown passes (five) than interceptions (three). Barring some collapse during training camp or an injury, it appears as though he is the Bucs' starting quarterback.

At running back, the Buccaneers recently reached an agreement with free-agent running back Derrick Ward (New York Giants). He is expected to pair with Earnest Graham (ankle), who suffered a season-ending ankle injury that landed him on Injured Reserve in 2008.

Oft-injured tailback Cadillac Williams (knee) remains in the fold, but his durability issues have forced the Bucs to look elsewhere for regular production. He should be available to play a complementary role in 2009, and it wouldn't surprise us to see the Buccaneers model their backfield after the Giants' 2008 three-headed monster.

All things considered, Tampa Bay's ground game should be at the very least competent and as good as dynamic in '09.

Looking at the wide receiver position, the Buccaneers used their franchise tag on last year's breakout performer, Antonio Bryant. His 83 receptions for 1,248 yards and seven touchdown catches in 2008 led the team. Bryant was consistent and made spectacular catches throughout the year after sitting out the 2007 season without a team. However, he doesn't have much of a track record, and he didn't even find a home for the 2007 season.

Veteran receiver Michael Clayton re-signed with the team and is coming off his best season since his rookie year in 2004. It's no secret that Clayton hasn't lived up to his rookie season, having scored only twice since his seven-touchdown showing in '04.

Pass catcher Dexter M. Jackson is a speedy deep threat but struggled to make any noticeable contribution in 2008. The Appalachian State product was inactive from Week 8 through the rest of the season. He'll get a shot to contribute on offense this year, most likely as a slot receiver. The Bucs burned a second-round pick on him in 2008, so it's likely they will give him every shot to succeed.

Veteran wideouts Joey Galloway and Ike Hilliard were both released in the recent roster purge.

Tight end Jerramy Stevens, who is an unrestricted free agent and is unlikely to return, led the position for the Buccaneers in receptions (35) and yardage (385) while playing in 13 games.

Tight end Alex Smith played in 14 games. He recorded 21 receptions for 250 yards and led the position with three touchdowns for Tampa Bay.
Stevens and Smith combined for 94 total targets last year. By comparison, Winslow received 150 targets in 2007 alone!

Winslow's game
"K2," as he is known as, is a rangy, athletic, play-making tight end who relies on his smooth routes, impressive speed and soft hands to excel. He makes for a major mismatch against slower safeties and most linebackers.

Winslow is one of the most fluid tight ends in the league when he has the ball in his hands, and at 6-foot-4, 250 pounds, he has the size to come down with most jump balls. His best season to date was 2007. Winslow caught 82 passes for 1,106 yards (a healthy 13.5 per catch) and five touchdowns. Despite his size, he hasn't developed into a big red zone threat. Part of this can be blamed on the offense he was in with the Browns, though.

Injuries have slowed the talented second-generation star. A motorcycle accident cost him the entire 2005 season after he played in only two games his rookie year following a broken fibula. He dealt with a six-week staph infection after the motorcycle accident.

Winslow returned with a vengeance and completed his first full season in 2005. He hauled in what is still a career-best 89 passes. He scored three times and posted 875 yards (9.8 yards per reception).

Last season wasn't so kind to Winslow, or the Browns for that matter. He caught just 43 passes for 428 yards (10.0) and three touchdowns in 10 games. He was hospitalized for what was later learned to be another staph infection, and the entire ordeal ultimately soured his relationship with the organization, primarily general manager Phil Savage. Winslow was suspended one game for comments detrimental to the team, but the suspension was later rescinded; Winslow still sat out Week 8. To top off all of that, Winslow battled a high ankle and shoulder sprains as the season winded down.

The writing was on the wall for Winslow's departure from the Browns; it was just a matter of when and to whom.

Look for Tampa Bay to make him one of the primary focuses in the offense. He should end up as the second-most targeted player on the team behind Bryant. As long as Bryant is on par with his play of last season, and Clayton is capable of keeping defenders honest, Winslow should be free up the middle of the field. The addition of Ward and the return to health of Graham should only open it up further.

Fantasy football outlook
You always have to worry about the injury risk that comes with drafting Winslow. He has shown that regardless of the quarterback he is capable of producing. Winslow will need to learn a new playbook, adapt to a new quarterback and surroundings, but we're confident he is able to make a successful transition.

View Winslow as a strong No. 1 tight end in all fantasy circles, and he is slightly more valuable in point-per-reception formats. Don't bank on him in touchdown-heavy leagues, but his athleticism should win out in the red zone if given enough chances. He is a classic high-risk, high-reward player.

(kffl.com)