What is Giants safety Antrel Rolle worth?

With the 2014 season ticking down, the question that has been posed to the Giants' key free agents is whether, all things being equal, they would like to re-sign with the team this offseason.

First we heard from defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, who expressed his desire to be a "Giant for life" last week. And on Wednesday safety and defensive captain Antrel Rolle boldly declared that he thinks he has three more seasons left of playing at a high level.

A cynic would say that Rolle's statement is nothing more than end-of-the-year posturing from a player positioning himself for a contract. After all, Rolle has seen a notable dropoff in his play this season from the prime of his career, or even last season when he was one of the better safeties in the league.

He is currently ranked 78th out of 87 safeties in the league by Pro Football Focus, with a grade of -8.1, a steep drop from 2013, when he was rated the eighth best safety in the league. The chinks in the armor have been more visible for Rolle this season. He has 74 tackles and only three interceptions and the impact plays that Rolle has built his reputation on have not been there.

Those kind of numbers won't exactly have owners John Mara and Steve Tisch rushing to cut a check. But let's assume that the Giants have some interest in bringing Rolle back. Rolle has a positive history with the organization and is considered one of the leaders in the locker room. The problem is that those intangibles are hardly worth the $7.25 million that

Rolle is currently earning, making him the third-highest paid safety in football.

The problem with determining Rolle's worth is that there are so few players to compare him to. There aren't too many 32-year old starting safeties in the league, and the few that are around have noticeably declined from their prime. For his part, Rolle believes age is nothing but a number. He has also never missed a game as a Giant.

"I have never worried about age. You can put me up against any 32-year-old," Rolle said. "Age has never been a factor to me. These coaches will tell you I don't take days off, even in practice. Other players can take age and use it as whatever they want to use it as, but I know myself."

Based on his peers around the league, there are really only two options the Giants could entertain if they do indeed want to bring Rolle back — overpay him based on his reputation or convince him to take less money and years that are more in line with his age and performance.

The Ceiling: Troy Polamalu / Ed Reed money
Even at his best, Rolle is probably a couple of notches below the elite level that Reed and Polamalu played at for the majority of their careers. But what makes Rolle's situation comparable to these two future Hall of Famers is that both managed to score one final big payday in their 30s, which would be a best-case scenario for the Giants safety.

Reed, at age 35, scored a three-year, $14.875 million contract from the Houston Texans in 2013 after 11 seasons with the Baltimore Ravens, with $5 million guaranteed. Polamalu, 33, was actually extended this spring before he could become a free agent this offseason, with the Steelers signing him for two more years at $11.75 million, with $6.75 million guaranteed.

The Reed contract is particularly interesting because, like Rolle, he was coming off of a down year by his standards, ranking 60th in the league among safeties, according to PFF, with a -1.9 grade and four interceptions, a low number for the ball-hawking centerfielder.

Polamalu, on the other hand, had a very good season in 2013. He was the fifth-ranked safety in football, with a PFF grade of 13.3, still playing at the high level that the Steelers had come to expect.

Of course, both contracts should come with a "buyer beware" sticker. As is the case with any contract offered to an NFL player over 30, there is always the chance that the following year could be the one where that player begins to show his age, which is exactly what happened to both Reed and Polamalu.

Reed was cut after seven games with the Texans. He recorded zero interceptions, before latching on with the Jets for the second half of the season and rebounding somewhat, with three picks over the final seven games. Still, at 36, Reed was not re-signed by the Jets and is unofficially retired.

Meanwhile, Polamalu has had his first poor season in years, with zero picks through 12 games, and is the 50th-ranked safety in football.

It is not inconceivable that Rolle could receive a three-year deal in the $4-$6 million range of guaranteed money, especially from some team looking to make a splash this offseason and attach a big name to their secondary. But the Giants would be foolish to overpay Rolle at this level. Even if Rolle were to rebound next season to his 2013 form, there is still a good chance that he won't live up to the back end of that contract and will end up a cap casualty.

The Likely Scenario: Charles Woodson money
In a perfect world, Rolle would be amenable to the kind of short-term deal that Oakland Raiders safety Charles Woodson received this offseason. Woodson is on his second consecutive one-year deal with the Raiders, with a guaranteed salary of $1.15 million, and can reach as high as $2.5 million with incentives.

Woodson is obviously a good deal older than Rolle at 38, but the other safeties around the league that are close to Rolle's age (such as Mike Adams, Danieal Manning, and Jim Leonhard) never played at the level that the Giants safety did at his peak.

Like Reed and Polamalu, Woodson is a future Hall of Famer, and is primarily being paid based off of his past performance. But even if that is the case, Woodson is actually rated higher than Rolle and has the same number of interceptions this season. Adams and Manning are probably more comparable to Rolle in terms of ability at this point, Rolle is a three-time Pro Bowler that will be looking for a much higher base salary than Adams' $965,000 or Manning's $855,000.

Signing Rolle to a one-year deal with a slightly higher base salary than Woodson (think in the $2-3 million range) allows him to save face and still earn a salary commensurate with his reputation and current level of play. The Giants could even add some incentives if Rolle hits certain personal milestones, such as a Pro Bowl appearance.

That contract also allows the Giants to punt on addressing both safety positions this offseason — they will likely be looking for replacements for free safeties Quintin Demps and Stevie Brown — and retain one of the few vocal leaders in the locker room.

Of course, there are a lot of variables that will factor into the decision to keep Rolle, most notably whether coach Tom Coughlin is brought back as coach or if the Giants bring in a new defensive coordinator with a vastly new scheme. But barring a monumental shift in philosophy, the Giants should either bring Rolle back on a one-year contract or completely revamp the safety position.


(nj.com)