ESPN says Ryan Braun's power ratings are in decline

In a blog post headlined "Ryan Braun's power outage," ESPN's Buster Olney examines how different a hitter the Milwaukee Brewers rightfielder has been this season compared to past seasons, particularly 2012 and '11.

Olney quotes an unidentified evaluator who has seen Braun a few times this season, one in which Braun has dealt with a variety of injuries.

"Takes the ball to the opposite field a lot," said the evaluator. "I think he's more of an opposite field hitter than almost anybody in baseball. He doesn't really pull the ball anymore, and I don't think he hits the ball as far as he used to."

Olney then uses data about Braun generated by senior researcher Justin Havens, who found that 46.1% of Braun's hits this season were to the opposite field, compared to 32.8% in 2013, 31.4% in '12 and 27.8% in '11. He ranks 146th out of 163 batters in percent of hits pulled (30.8%).

Braun's slugging percentage notably is down when he does pull the ball. And his batted balls simply are not traveling as far, down 17 feet on average from last season. Braun also is chasing pitches out of the strike zone more than he has in the past — 39% this season, which Havens said is one of the highest marks in baseball. With two strikes his chase rate is 55% this season compared to 41.7% last season.

"The numbers are clear: a far greater percentage of Braun's hits are going to opposite field than in previous seasons, and the balls he does pull are being pulled with noticeably less authority," Olney said. "What has caused this clear departure is for others to speculate on, but it is clear Braun is not the hitter he was in previous seasons."

Olney notes: "Braun is having a good season, without question, with a .354 on-base percentage. He's on track to accumulate a respectable 63 extra-base hits — but with 19 homers and 37 walks, very different from his 2012 totals of 41 homers and 63 walks."


(jsonline.com)