Chris Perez Could Throw Faster?

May/27/08 09:01 PM Filed in: Chris Perez
ChrisPerez
I apologize for the brief hiatus. This weekend was very enjoyable and, hopefully, was the same for you. It was so enjoyable, in fact, that I couldn't find time to write anything new since Wednesday. The Cardinals have been winning games, mainly due to a resurgence of the starting pitching staff, which, by the way, had an impressive 1.89 ERA in the Dodgers series. They've won 6 of their last 8, but are only 12-11 for the month of May. The Cards have managed to stay a half-game back of the Cubs despite their mini-slump in the middle of the month, losing 8 of 10 games against the Rockies, Brewers, Pirates, and Rays. The Astros and Pirates linger ahead, giving us a legitimate chance to catapult back into first place by the month's end. One foot in front of the other...

A lot of attention has turned to Chris Perez, who has been lights-out so far with the Cards. Although Ryan Franklin is going to be closing the majority of the games, Perez is going to be a major league closer soon enough. His stuff is certainly there - FanGraphs has him averaging 95 mph on his fastball, a fastball that has been thrown a whopping 83.1% of the time in 4 appearances. And there's evidence that his stuff will improve as the years go by, according to Josh Kalk. In "Preliminary aging curve for fastball speed," Josh dives into his preliminary PITCHf/x data - data that measures pitch speed, location, and movement - to show that pitchers typically gain speed as they age, to a point:
It appears that until pitchers reach 28 or 29, they increase the speed on their fastball by about 1.5 mph. After 29, there is a rather sharp decline in fastball speed.

Take a look at the article and see the graph for yourself, as it's very interesting stuff. What it could mean is that Chris Perez will be averaging 97 mph on his pitches as he progresses towards his late 20's. Tony seems to need to be persuaded that Perez can do the job at the moment, however:

"Chris Perez is not ready to close on a daily basis," La Russa said Sunday before his team’s series finale against Los Angeles. "That would not be good for him and it would not be good for us. He needs to grow into his responsibilities here. I don’t even worry about how that sounds, because clearly from the way he’s being used there’s a confidence factor there."

With Jason Motte averaging a mid-90's fastball in Memphis, the Cards could have two flame-throwing arms coming out of the bullpen in the next couple of years. I can't remember the last time we had that luxury.

(rockinred.blogspot.com)