Ryan Braun one of few first-rounders living up to draft position

The track record of fantasy owners projecting the best players each year is poor. If you study the previous seven seasons of results from the first rounds of 15-team leagues on Mock Draft Central, you'll find only about 37% of players lived up to their average draft position (ADP).

That trend is holding up in 2011. There are five first-rounders who are in the top 15 for fantasy production.

In order (statistics through Sunday, with ADP and current rank respectively): the Milwaukee Brewers' Ryan Braun (10th, third); the Boston Red Sox's Adrian Gonzalez (eighth, sixth); the Cincinnati Reds' Joey Votto (seventh, ninth); the Detroit Tigers' Miguel Cabrera (third, 10th); and the St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols (first, 13th).

Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp leads all players with a $42 Rotisserie value. His 16 home runs, 14 steals and a .323 batting average put him on pace for a career year. BaseballHQ.com projects him to post roughly 100 runs and RBI, nearly 40 homers and more than 30 steals.

According to Mock Draft Central, Kemp entered the season as a second-round selection with an ADP of 23. His performance this year is not entirely surprising since he was a first-rounder in 2010.

Toronto Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista is ranked second, earning $41. A late third-rounder (ADP of 45), it would have been reasonable to expect some regression after his 54-homer outburst last season.

But Bautista hasn't regressed — he has improved. His league-leading 20-homer power is supported by a .348 batting average. Our projections have him finishing just shy of 50 home runs, but he might maintain an average above .300.

Braun is the only player projected to finish in the top 15 who is currently among the top-five best players in the game. His No. 3 ranking is earning $36. After hitting .358 with nine home runs in April, he has cooled a bit but is still on pace for his first 30-30 season.

Although we rarely draft pitchers in the first round, it is inevitable a few end up finishing high. But Los Angeles Angels right-hander Jered Weaver would not have been the natural choice to lead all hurlers at the 10-week mark.

Currently ranked fourth overall and earning $35, Weaver boasts seven wins and 85 strikeouts, a 2.14 ERA and microscopic 0.95 WHIP. He came into the season ranked 55th, a fourth-round pick.

Weaver's peripherals, however, indicate a more sedate 3.69 expected ERA, so odds are he will regress. BaseballHQ.com has him projected to pitch at a 3.49 level the rest of the way and finish with 16 wins and a 2.95 ERA.

New York Yankees outfielder Curtis Granderson is fifth, boosted by a 10-homer, .294 performance in May. Currently earning $35, he came into the season as a sixth-round pick (ADP of 77). We project him to finish with 39 home runs, 21 steals and a .274 average.


(usatoday.com)